CALIFORNIA (By Timm Herdt) August 20, 2005 - Nothing can get a Republican political strategist in California worked into a state of wistful hopefulness, or a Democratic strategist into a state of defensive denial, quite like suggesting that the future of the Latino vote is up for grabs.

Latinos have been an essential and reliable element of the Democratic coalition that has dominated California for the past decade.

Both sides are aware of that, and also know something even more important: If that trend holds, Republicans will become a permanent and hopeless minority party in the state.

In 20 years, the Census Bureau estimates, the state's population will be 43 percent Latino and of its projected 62 congressional districts, 28 will have Latino voting majorities.

Given that, the most significant political question of the early 21st century is whether the trend will hold.

Both sides can cite theories, anecdotes and even evidence to support their view — Republicans, that the tide is shifting; Democrats, that Latinos will be a solid bloc of voting support into the future.

The question is essential not just to California politics. On a national scale, growing Latino populations in Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Florida and Texas will determine presidential elections in the near future.

Some Republicans argue, in fact, that it has already happened. Were it not for the fact that President Bush fared better last fall than Republicans historically have among Latinos, Arizona, Nevada and Colorado could have gone the other way. Had that happened, it wouldn't have mattered who won Ohio; John Kerry would be president.

There were early estimates that Bush took as much as 44 percent of the Latino vote, but revised data from the National Election Pool put the figure at 40 percent.

In the California recall election of 2003, Arnold Schwarzenegger won in large part because of significant Latino support, 32 percent.

If 40 percent and 32 percent don't sound like much, consider that Bob Dole got just 21 percent in 1996 and Bill Simon received just 24 percent in his 2002 race for governor.

Is the political climate among Latinos changing?

The Democracy Corps, a national research organization headed by former Clinton pollster Stanley Greenberg, sought last month to take the political temperature of American Latinos.

Democrats and Republicans alike can take some heart in what it found.

"The key thing is that Democrats can't take this group for granted," said analyst Matt Hogan. "We can't afford to be complacent."

Perhaps the most interesting finding in the survey of 1,000 Latinos was that, although many more identify themselves as Democrats (54 percent) than as Republicans (26 percent), they aren't as inflexible as much of the rest of the nation.

Most core Democratic constituent groups, Hogan noted, tend to be as strongly anti-Republican as they are pro-Democrat. The inverse applies to Republican constituencies.

But Latinos seem to be genuinely open-minded.

One of Greenberg's signature questions is to ask respondents to give a temperature score to different subjects, with 100 degrees signifying very warm, favorable feelings and 0 degrees meaning very cold, unfavorable feelings.

The mean temperature for Democrats was 60 degrees. For Republicans, 48 degrees.

"They don't have the hostility toward Republicans that the other Democratic groups do," Hogan said. "They're basically divided on Republicans."

Bush's performance among Latinos proves the point.

His relative popularity shows that Latino voters look for more than a party label. One worrisome issue for Republicans, however, is what will happen to the national Latino vote after Bush is gone.

Exhibit One from the poll: 30 percent said they believe Bush "accepts different cultures," but only 18 percent said they believed that true of the Republican Party as a whole.

On the question of moral values — the buzz words of analysts in the aftermath of Bush's victory — there were some surprising results.

While 24 percent cited "lack of respect for life, including abortion," as a moral concern, the single greatest moral concern cited by Latinos was "so many people living in poverty."

Writes Greenberg: "At the heart of the consciousness of Hispanic voters is a strong concern for the poor .... They believe in community and mutual support, using the government to create opportunity for all."

All in all, a worthy message for both parties to take under advisement as they strive to win the hearts of an increasingly important electorate.

Timm Herdt is chief of The Star's state bureau. His political web log is at http://www.TimmHerdt.com.